It's hard to believe, but this weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup series rolls into Richmond International Raceway for the final race to make the Chase for the Championship.

What's even harder to believe is who will be on the outside looking in when the green flag falls Saturday night at the Chevy Rock & Roll 400.

Kyle Busch, who has won four races this year, stands in 14th place, 37 points behind 12th-place driver Matt Kenseth. In 13th is Brian Vickers, only 20 points outside of the top 12. David Reutimann, still mathematically eligible, is a very long shot at 132 points behind Kenseth.

Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin have all locked in their Chase berths and will be going for a win at the 3/4-mile track to help their seeding in the final 10 races. The drivers in line behind them, and their finish scenarios to make the Chase, are:

Carl Edwards, fifth: Edwards is 105 points ahead of 13th. Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes: 24th or better; 25th and leads at least one lap; or 27th and leads the most laps.

Kasey Kahne, sixth: Kahne is 96 points ahead of 13th. Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes: 21st or better; 23rd and leads at least one lap; or 24th and leads the most laps.

Kurt Busch, seventh: Busch is 95 points ahead of 13th. Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes: 20th or better; 22nd and leads at least one lap; or 24th and leads the most laps.


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Juan Pablo Montoya, eighth: Montoya is 88 points ahead of 13th. Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes: 18th or better; 20th and leads at least one lap; or 21st and leads the most laps.

Ryan Newman, ninth: Newman is 81 points ahead of 13th. Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes: 16th or better; 17th and leads at least one lap; or 19th and leads the most laps.

Mark Martin, 10th: Martin is 69 points ahead of 13th. Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes: 12th or better, 14th and leads at least one lap; or 15th and leads the most laps.

Greg Biffle, 11th: Biffle is 68 points ahead of 13th. Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes: 11th or better; 13th and leads at least one lap; or 15th and leads the most laps.

Matt Kenseth, 12th: Kenseth is 20 points ahead of 13th. Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes: second or better and leads a lap; or third and leads the most laps.

Ellen Siska writes about NASCAR for The York Dispatch. She can be reached at esiska@yorkdispatch.com. Read her blog, "Pitting Outside the Box," at the Blogzone at yorkdispatch.com.