This will be an easy column to write. I've written it, or something like it, for seven years in a row at this time of the year.

Not even the names have changed much over the years.

Midnight next Tuesday. June 30. One week from yesterday.

We're supposed to have a new state budget by then.

Will we?

Not a snowball's chance in July.

And if we do, we won't like it. In fact, no matter when -- even a month from now -- the state budget is finally approved we're not going to like it.

On that, you can be certain.

Because all we've been hearing from the Democrats -- from Gov. Ed Rendell and his staff to nearly every Dem in the state Legislature -- is talk of a tax increase.

All we've been hearing from the Republicans in the state Legislature is talk of controlled spending -- that'd be nice if we could get it -- and no tax increase.

And never the twain shall meet.

For his part, Rendell has not had a budget passed on time since he's been governor. It runs against his grain, I guess, to get this done on time. And when it doesn't happen, he simply points to the lack of effort by the General Assembly.

They don't work hard enough, Rendell says. They don't start the process early enough, he says. They're too disagreeable -- especially the Republicans -- he says. They're not working in the best interests of taxpayers in this state, he says.

In the end, it's going to be the same mad scramble at the last minute that we see every year. Something quickly thrown

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together. Something that ends up only in the hands of leadership for both parties. Something that most members of the state House and Senate don't even get to see, much less read in its entirety, until too late in the process to make an informed decision. Something ultimately passed at 2 a.m., but not at 2 a.m. on June 29.

It's a hell of a way to run a shoe factory, I think.

But state lawmakers and politicians don't care what I think. They don't care what any of us commoners think. It's their ball, and they're going to do with it as they please.

Gov. Rendell's insistence that there be a state income tax increase -- from 3.07 percent to 3.37 percent (later changed to 3.57 percent) in a down economy -- rubs Republicans, some Democrats and most taxpayers the wrong way.

Yet he sticks to it like a drop of Krazy Glue between his thumb and forefinger.

It appears to be the only solution -- throw more money at it -- he's come up with to deal with a problem of too many bills and not enough money to pay those bills. Apparently he's never heard of placing curbs on spending.

The Republican-controlled state Senate has actually passed a balanced budget -- no tax increase, either -- but it's been buried in the House Appropriations Committee.

And the House? It might as well have been on vacation for the last six months for all it's accomplished. It rejected the Senate budget, then went back to sleep.

The governor blames the General Assembly. He doesn't like the Senate budget, and he doesn't like it that the House has no budget at all. The state Senate blames the governor. The House blames the state Senate and the governor. Hot potato, hot potato!

This is the same governor, by the way, who's six budgets since 2003 have increased at double the rate of inflation -- 39 percent, when the rate of inflation was 18 percent. Clearly, he's never met a dollar he didn't enjoy spending.

Any minute now we're going to hear how the govrnor might have to put state workers -- the non-essential ones, I guess -- on temporary furlough come July 1. He's already informed them they won't be paid after July 1. They'll be expected to work, but won't get paid for that work until a budget is passed.

Some state parks might have to be shut down. Some reservations canceled. Some park personnel put on mandatory vacation, but without pay.

And if not park personnel, then maybe PennDOT workers.

That's supposed to soften us up. No one wants to see any state employees laid off.

Except me, I guess. I'd like to see about 10,000 state employees laid off permanently. Twenty thousand might even be better. Start in the General Assembly and governor's office, cut everyone's staff by half.

And let's not worry about less work getting done with half staff than gets done now. That's impossible. We could easily go at half-staff in every department of this state for six months before anyone would notice.

That might be a slight exaggeration, but not by much.

Midnight -- Tuesday, June 30.

A state budget for 2009-10 is due.

At one minute past midnight, it'll be past due.

And none of us will be shocked.

In fact, that's precisely what we've come to expect.

Politics as usual in Pennsylvania.

Columns by Larry A. Hicks, Dispatch columnist, run Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. E-mail: lhicks@yorkdispatch.com.